About the Role
You'll research and price real-world events — from politics and sports to economics and crypto — building probability estimates and monitoring markets across Polymarket and Kalshi. It's a research-driven seat in a fast-emerging asset class, blending quantitative modelling with sharp judgment about how the world actually resolves.
What You'll Do
- Monitor active event markets in real time across Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Develop and backtest fair-value and probability models using historical data, Bayesian updating, and news and sentiment signals.
- Research which real-world events are viable to trade, weighing demand, competition, and clarity of resolution.
- Track cross-platform pricing discrepancies and event-driven momentum across politics, sports, economics, and crypto-adjacent markets.
- Evaluate market rules and resolution criteria to keep views fair and dispute-proof.
- Maintain an ongoing research process on current events — news, polling, and on-chain data — to inform probability views.
- Partner with engineers on API integrations and monitoring tools.
- Run root-cause analysis when markets misprice or resolve unexpectedly.
What You Bring
- A bachelor's degree in a quantitative or related field (Statistics, Economics, Finance, Computer Science, or Mathematics).
- A strong grasp of probability, statistics, and Bayesian reasoning.
- Strong Python for data analysis (pandas, NumPy).
- Genuine, demonstrated engagement with prediction markets — a personal forecasting or trading track record is a big plus.
- Strong written and verbal communication for drafting rules and working across teams.
- Detail orientation that balances real-time monitoring with longer-horizon research.
- Fluency in English is required.
Nice to Have
- A track record of profitable trading in prediction markets, options, or event-driven strategies.
- Blockchain/DeFi familiarity (on-chain settlement, USDC, Polygon) for platforms like Polymarket.
- Familiarity with prediction-market APIs or adjacent domains such as options or event betting.
- NLP or machine-learning experience for sentiment or fair-value modelling.
What You'll Get
- Competitive base salary with a meaningful performance-based bonus.
- A front-row seat in a fast-emerging asset class.
- A meritocratic, collaborative culture where the best ideas win.
- Access to data, tooling, and a team that takes forecasting seriously.
- Comprehensive health and wellness benefits.
- Based in our New York office.